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This page lists my working papers and ongoing research projects. Click the title of a paper to read its abstract or access a link to the current draft.
1. White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical riskWe investigate the effects of low oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks on economic growth and investment in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. We find that negative shocks to oil prices and positive shocks to geopolitical risk have adverse effects on GDP and investment. Moreover, we find that the impact of investment on GDP in MENA countries is muted when oil prices are low and/or geopolitical risk level is high. These findings cast doubts on the prospects of mega-project economic transformation plans as envisioned in 2030 visions for several MENA countries. Full Text**********Highlights **********Blog
11. From Soviet to Europe: Returns to Education Puzzle in BulgariaThis article makes a systematic presentation of returns to education in Bulgaria, a country that has witnessed a number of dramatic structural changes over the last two decades. It examines the headway of returns to education for Bulgaria in two observed economic regimes — from communism to EU membership. The findings show a steady increase in returns to education for both men and women until 2003. The average returns to one additional year of education rose from 1.1 per cent in 1986 to 5.1 per cent in 2003 for men and from 2.1 to 5.9 per cent for women. Quantile regression estimations between 1986 and 2003 evince that the most prominent increase in the wage premium occurred at the top end of the distribution, where the rate of returns to education increased in particular for women — from a negative and insignificant sign in 1986 to 7 per cent in 2003. However, this increasing trend in returns to education seems to take an inverted U-shape in 2007, the year when the country joined the EU, which poses a new puzzle to be resolved. To this end, the current article introduces possible explanations for such a puzzle and sheds lights on a number of insightful policy implications. Full Text ********** Highlights ********** Blog
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